Five Box Office Results This Weekend More Important Than Expensive Vanity Doc 'Melania'

'Send Help,' 'Iron Lung,' 'The Moment,' 'Zootopia 2,' and overall January results have vastly more significance.

‘Send Help’ (Disney)

While “Melania” (Amazon MGM) sucked up most of the theatrical movie media attention over the last few days, this soon to be forgotten vanity project/pay tribute to the king project other than adding a few million to box office totals (nothing is unwelcome these days) is far down any realistic list of important signs this weekend.

Most of them are healthy. Though not game changing, a nuanced reading of some of these combine to present some significant positive news.

More (as much as it deserves) on “Melania” below. First, here is what really matters this weekend:

• Disney, the top studio, almost entirely because of franchise (Marvel, “Avatar”) and animation titles usually costing $150 million or more has what looks like a hit in “Send Help.” Sam Raimi’s stand-alone original thriller cost only $40 million, then boosted by strong reviews opened at #1 this weekend. Though the reported $20 million estimate seems a bit high (possibly by as much as $1 million) before Sunday’s actual results come in, that’s still as much as a third better than projected.

  Why important? It’s a boost for non-franchise titles at Disney in particular and for the industry in general. Coming on the heels of “The Housemaid” (Lionsgate) and some disappointing early year original films, this is a boost for creative filmmaking.

• “Iron Lung,” a micro-budget videogame adaptation released outside normal distribution channels and directed, written by, and starring Youtube creator Mark Fischback grossed nearly $18 million for #2. That’s a much as double its expectations, and comes with mostly social media marketing that cost a tiny fraction of the reported $35 million “Melania” campaign. This sleeper hit was originally expected to be a modest self-release, but after Fischback’s team pushed for fans to push top chains to play it, this sci-fi thriller organically found an audience.

  Why important? It’s self-evident that thinking outside the box, working with a base of younger fans, and having the imprimateur of exclusive top theater presence combined to provide an elevated experience.

• The mockumentary “The Moment” (A24) with Charli XCX delivered a terrific $428,000 in four New York/Los Angeles theaters, enhanced by the performer’s personal appearance at several screenings and other special events. Specialized openings like this in late January are unheard of.

  Why important? Again, the event aspect of presenting in theaters, previously seen on a much bigger scale by Taylor Swift emphasizes what can be done outside the home or concert stage. Also, after a year in which only one Sundance-premiered film grossed more than $2.5 million in the U.S./Canada, to just a week after this showed at this year’s festival for this to do this well is a hopeful sign.

• Don’t overlook this result. “Zootopia 2” (Disney) debuted on PVOD last Tuesday. This weekend, its gross in theaters increased 9% to $5.8 million in fourth place, p ahead of the later opening “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” and now with $409 million in total U.S./Canada gross looks likely to reach the $424 million needed to be the top 2025 release.

  Why important? This is one of the most clear-cut cases of how marketing a home release (it costs $24.99 to rent for 48 hours) helps theaters. And along with “The Minecraft Movie” and “Lilo & Stitch,” currently the top two 2025 domestic releases, it reiterates the critical importance of family titles for theaters (just as “KPop Demon Hunters” does for streaming originals).

• January 2026 ends up with about $600 million in U.S./Canada grosses. That’s the best since 2020 (just before Covid) hit), and an increase of around 8% from last year for the month.

  Why important? The month had disappointments and a below-average holiday holdover slate, but still managed to improve. That’s a good sign for the year. The caveat? 2020 and the years just before saw the month total $800 million to over $1 billion at ticket prices 15% or lower than now. So total attendance remains way down.

So what about “Melania”? It went from an anticipated mediocre $4 million projection in 1,778 theaters to a studio-provided estimate of $8.1 million yesterday morning to now $7 million. That includes a guess of only a 20% drop today.

Obviously, this will lose money for Jeff Bezos’ film studio (petty cash for him). The early part of the week was full of accurate reports of empty theaters, particularly in big cities and among normally top grossing theaters. Distributors started noticing a surge in seats bought starting Wednesday. One possibility - the bad PR ended up provoking an “own the libs” reaction from MAGA folks, or at the least just gave it more publicity.

But also apparently helping was some outside group ticket buying. Again, the documentation on this is sketchy. But industry sources say there were signs that blocs of tickets were purchased for the weekend, then distributed to senior citizen homes, Republican activitists, other interested parties for free to help boost audiences.

Assuming this happened, how much did this help? We’ll never know, and the reality is that like other far right documentaries and overlapping faith-based films, there is a core older, less urban, mostly white audience that responds to them, but with a fraction of the marketing cost spent here. So thinking there was a legitimate normal ticket-paying audience of over $5 million would be logical at a minimum, irrespective of how the ultimate result compares to other documentaries.

With a likely big drop, “Melania” could easily top out around $14 million. That’s what Magnolia achieved with a tiny fraction of the advertising for “RBG” on Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg in 2018. That would be around $18 million today, and with at its widest only one fourth as many theaters.

The top 10 didn’t completely provide good news. Two conventional mid-budget action films fell flat. “Shelter” (Black Bear), with Jason Strathan and a reported $50 million cost, only managed $5 million (in a virtual ties with “Fire and Ash” for fifth). The second weekend of “Mercy” with Chris Pratt and a $60 million budget (Amazon MGM) dropped from its disappointing initial #1 position to seventh, $4.7 millio, off 56%.

“The Housemaid” had the second best hold in the top 10, down 11% at #8, now $120 million U.S./Canada. Overall business (with one February day included boosting the result) year to date is up 12%.

Other specialized/independent/award competing titles:

• “Marty Supreme” (A24) is the sole top category Oscar contender still in the top 10. It’s #9, $2.9 million, now over $90 million. “Hamnet” (Focus) with $1.5 million has reached $20 million. Among the rest, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus) added $540,000/$38.2 million total; “The Secret Agent” (Neon) $276,000/$3.2 million, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) $147,000/$4.7 million, with these two having expansions this weekend.

• Animated Feature nominee “Arco” (Neon) in its second regular-run week expansion grossed $412,000 in 302 theaters. International Film contender “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Willa) added $126,000 in 108, $598,000 total.

• Apart from “The Moment,” three other films had encouraging initial limited dates. Two were acclaimed at Cannes: “A Poet” (1-2 Special) from Colombia took in $27,754 in one theater each in New York and Los Angeles. The Icelandic “The Love That Remains” (Janus) did $27,200 in two New York locations. “Natchez” (Oscilloscope), an acclaimed documentary about the southern city, after an earlier qualifying week debuted in New York with $17,000.

• Other second week titles: “Return to Silent Hill” (Cineverse) though it fell 84% still reported $901,000, total $5.1 million; “Chika” (Sony) added $575,000, now $2.1 million.

• “A Private Life” with Jodie Foster (Sony Pictures Classics) in its third week had a big expansion, but only saw $348,000 in 420 theaters.

• Ongoing - “No Other Choice” (Neon) added $405,000/$9.1 million. “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight) in 500 managed $312,000, $2.1 million.

TOP TEN

1. Send Help (Disney) NEW - Cinemascore: B+; Metacritic: 76; Est. budget: $40 million

$20,000,000 in 3,475 theaters; PTA (per theater average): $5,755; Cumulative: $20,000,000

2. Iron Lung (Markiplier) NEW - Est. budget: $2 million

$17,862,000 in 3,015 theaters; PTA: $5,924; Cumulative: $17,862,000

3. Melania (MGM Amazon) NEW - Cinemascore: A; Metacritic: 7; Est. budget: $40 million

$7,042,000 in 1,778 theaters; PTA: $3,960; Cumulative: $7,040,000

4. Zootopia 2 (Disney) Week 10; Last weekend #3; also on PVOD

$5,800,000 (+9%) in 2,880 (-50) theaters; PTA: $2,014; Cumulative: $408,957,000

5. Shelter (Black Bear) NEW - Cinemascore: B+; Metacritic: 52; Est. budget: $50 million

$5,505,000 in 2,726 theaters; PTA: $2,019; Cumulative: $5,505,000

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (Disney) Week 7; Last weekend #2

$5,500,000 (-14%) in 2,800 (-350) theaters; PTA: $1,964; Cumulative: $386,127,000

7. Mercy (MGM Amazon) Week 2; Last weekend #1

$4,730,000 (-56%) in 3,468 (no change) theaters; PTA: $1,364; Cumulative: $19,408,000

8. The Housemaid (Lionsgate) Week 7; Last weekend #4

$3,500,000 (-11%) in 2,603 (-404) theaters; PTA: $1,345; Cumulative: $120,686,000

9. Marty Supreme (A24) Week 7; Last weekend #6

$2,914,000 (-18%) in 1,703 (-318) theaters; PTA: $1,711; Cumulative: $90,880,000

10. 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple (Sony) Week 3; Last weekend #5

$1,600,000 (-53%) in 2,042 (-1,464) theaters; PTA: $784; Cumulative: $23,651,000

Other specialized/independent/award competing titles

Films (limited, expansions of limited) are listed by week in release, starting with those opened this week; after the first three weeks, only films with grosses over $5,000 are listed. Metacritic scores and initial film festivals recorded when available. After week two, per theater averages only listed for expanding films if relevant.

Review at Metacritic for opening films are linked to their reviews when available.

OPENING (20 or fewer theaters)

The Moment (A24) NEW - Metacritic: 53; Festivals include: Sundance 2026

$427,940 in 4 theaters; PTA: $106,985

A Poet (1-2 Special) NEW - Metacritic: 86; Festivals include: Cannes, Toronto 2025

$27,754 in 2 theaters; PTA: $13,877

The Love That Remains (Janus) NEW - Metacritic: 76; Festivals include: Cannes, Toronto, New York 2025

$27,200 in 2 theaters; PTA: $13,600

Natchez (Oscilloscope) NEW - Metacritic: 80; Festivals include: Tribeca

$17,016 in 1 theater; PTA: $17,016; Cumulative (including qualifying run): $29,041

ONGOING/EXPANDING

Return to Silent Hill (Cineverse) Week 2

$980,833 in 1,476 (-524) theaters; PTA: $609; Cumulative: $5,107,000

Arco (Neon) Week 2

$411,872 in 302 (+298) theaters; PTA: $; Cumulative: $517,086

Clika (Sony) Week 2

$575,000 in 540 (+18) theaters; PTA: $1,065; Cumulative: $2,257,000

H for Hawk (Roadside Attractions) Week 2

$23,578 in 96 theaters; PTA: $246; Cumulative: $275,310

A Private Life (Sony Pictures Classics) Week 3

$348,026 in 420 (+401) theaters; Cumulative: $560,155

All That’s Left of You (Watermelon) Week 4

$63,192 in 42 (-10) theaters; Cumulative: $363,203

David (Angel) Week 6; also on PVOD

$332,511 in 535 (-505) theaters; Cumulative: $79,965,000

Song Sung Blue (Focus) Week 6; also on PVOD

$540,000 in 709 (-446) theaters; Cumulative: $38,200,000

The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight) Week 6

$312,000 in 500 (no change) theaters; Cumulative: $2,104,000

The Choral (Sony Pictures Classics) Week 6

$47,605 in 51 (-73) theaters; Cumulative: $790,710

No Other Choice (Neon) Week 7

$405,000 in 323 (-359) theaters; Cumulative: $9,099,000

Is This Thing On? (Searchlight) Week 7

$75,000 in 95 (-205) theaters; Cumulative: $6,172,000

The Voice of Hind Rajab (Willa) Week 7

$125,717 in 108 (+70) theaters; Cumulative: $598,132

Hamnet (Focus) Week 10

$1,500,000 in 1,259 (-737) theaters; Cumulative: $20,200.000

The Secret Agent (Neon) Week 11

$276,000 in 312 (+167) theaters; Cumulative: $3,249,000

Sentimental Value (Neon) Week 14; also on PVOD

$147,000 in 276 (+169) theaters; Cumulative: $4,713,000