Marvel Scores Again with Decent, if Not 'Fantastic Four - First Steps'
Likely last $100 million+ opener show hope for fresh characters.
“The Fantastic Four - First Steps’ (Disney)
(Sorry for the duplicate posts - wrong picture first time!)
Disney will end up, as it more often than not does, with the biggest summer three-day opening weekend this year. But unlike most summers, it won’t be from a Marvel release.
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“Lilo & Stitch” will get that designation with $146 million. “The Fantastic Four - The First Steps” with $118 million in the U.S./Canada ($218 million worldwide), overall a positive result, will actually trail “Superman” (Warner Bros.) with $125 million among July openers. (“Jurassic Park: Rebirth” took in $148 million with a Wednesday opening its first five days).
The latest Marvel release is their best result among three releases this year, and the first to top $100 million (“Captain America: Brave New World” and “Thunderbolts” took in $88 and $78 million respectively earlier). And it did so as a debut film of new lead characters, rather than a more surefire sequel. For sure, that’s positive news.
And any gross at this level is good for theaters. But some reality - adjusting for inflation, this wouldn’t qualify among the 25 best openings for a Marvel (including non-Disney) releases. Adequate? For sure.
But with its reported (standard) $200 million production cost before marketing expense, this does not look so far like the kind of blockbuster formerly associated with Marvel. It’s a work in progress, with an A- Cinemascore a plus, but its lower than expected (based on strong Thursday results) weekend figure not suggesting a great hold ahead. Profitable? For sure. Dominant? No longer.
The U.S/Canada vs foreign breakdown - 54% for domestic - is also disconcerting. Foreign shares for most top studio films are down. But Marvel once commanded for its biggest films sometimes close to 70% of its gross overseas (“Avengers: Endgame” was 69%). Yes, this is not as weak as “Superman” (57% U.S./Canada), but that franchise historically has lagged behind Marvel. And the initial “Fantastic” foreign share is below the closer to equal the two earlier releases this year saw. Disconcerting.
There is a clear field for it to perform adequately or better in August. But based on the initial result, it looks likely that no Marvel film will top $300 million in the U.S./Canada this year. Other than COVID-closed 2020, that’s the first time (including “Spider-Man” films) that has happened without adjusting numbers since 2011, before Disney started MCU.
Overall box office is off, with “Fantastic” providing close to two-thirds of the $185 million total. That’s down from $285 million last year, which Marvel’s “Deadpool & Wolvering” opened to $211 million. It is the third biggest weekend of the summer, fourth best of the year. But the shortfall compared to last year means year to date took a tumble to 12% better, down from 15% ahead a week ago.
Competition from “Fantastic” took its toll on the third weekend of “Superman.” The DC Studios hit, which had only a 53% second weekend drop of 57% in second place with just under $25 million. Normally, third weekends hold better than the previous one, so figure audience overlap did damage. However, it is already up to $289 million. That’s only $12 million behind “Jurassic World Rebirth,” which has played nine days longer. “Rebirth” took third, down 45% with $13 million.
Apple’s “F1” (WB) remains stellar, #4 with $6 million, down 37% in its fifth week. Worldwide (foreign is close to 70% of its total) has now passed $500 million.
Last week’s three soft openings all fell further. “Smurfs” (Paramount) is fifth with $5.4 million, “I Know What You Did Last Summer” (Sony) sixth with $5.1 million, “Eddington” (A24) #8 with under $1.7 million.
SPECIALIZED HIGHLIGHTS
Two under 1,000 theater releases made the top 10 this week. The second week of “Saiyaara” (Yash Ra) an Indian musical, in its second week is #9. This is the second biggest release in its home country this year, and its popularity overseas seems to be growing. Its gross of just under $1.3 million is up 65% from last weekend, despite its 210 theater total 85 under its opening. That sort of thing never happens.
Sony Pictures Classics released “Oh, Hi!,” an edgy indie rom-com with Molly Gordon and Logan Lerman that debuted in Sundance. It placed tenth with $1,115,000 in 866 theaters. Figure that’s enough to bring attention to its likely more lucrative post-theatrical afterlife.
“Diciannove” (Oscilloscope) from Italy, the sole platform opening reported, did $18.1 three theaters.
“The Home” (Roadside Attractions) a horror film with Pete Davidson from James DeMonaco (director of several “Purge” entries) did about $1 million in 1,014 theaters.
Kiyoshi Kurosawa’s “Cloud” (Sideshow/Janus) added Los Angeles, with a second weekend total of $22,900 in three.
“Sorry, Baby” (A24) had a major theater count boost in its fifth week to 338 (+258), grossing $400,000, now $1.6 million. Not great, but in this weak summer for specialized, about as good as it gets.
Top 10
1. The Fantastic Four - First Steps (Disney) NEW - Cinemascore: A-; Metacritic: 64; Est. budget: $200 million
$118,000,000 in 4,125 theaters; PTA: $28,606; Cumulative: $118,000,000
2. Superman (WB) Week 3; Last weekend #1
$24,860,000 (-57%) in 3,930 (-345) theaters; PTA: $6,326; Cumulative: $289,502,000
3. Jurassic World Rebirth (Universal) Week 4; Last weekend #2
$13,000,000 (-45%) in 3,550 (-304) theaters; PTA: $3,662; Cumulative: $301,510,000
4. F1: The Movie (WB) Week 5; Last weekend #5
$6,200,000 (-37%) in 2,615 (-479) theaters; PTA: $2,371; Cumulative: $165,552,000
5. Smurfs (Paramount) Week 2; Last weekend #4
$5,400,000 (-51%) in 3,504 (no change) theaters; PTA: $1,541; Cumulative: $22,787,000
6. I Know What You Did Last Summer (Sony) Week 2; Last weekend #3
$5,100,000 (-60%) in 3,206 (no change) theaters; PTA: $1,591; Cumulative: $23,562,000
7. How to Train Your Dragon (Univeral) Week 7; Last weekend #6; also on PVOD
$2,800,000 (-48%) in 2,346 (-502) theaters; PTA: $1,194; Cumulative: $257,000,000
8. Eddington (A24) Week 2; Last weekend #7
$1,665,000 (-62%) in 2,065 (-46) theaters; PTA: $806; Cumulative: $8,105,000
9. Saiyaara (Yash Raj) Week 2; Last weekend #11
$1,285,000 (+65%) in 210 (-85) theaters; PTA: $5,978; Cumulative: $5,245,000
10. Oh, Hi! (Sony Pictures Classics) NEW - Metacritic: 62
$1,129,000 in 866 theaters; PTA: $1,304; Cumulative: $1,129,000
Other specialized/independent titles
Films (limited, expansions of limited) are listed by week in release, starting with those opened this week; after the first three weeks, only films with grosses over $5,000 are listed. Metacritic scores and initial film festivals recorded when available. After week two, per theater averages only listed for expanding films with under 100 theaters.
OPENING (platform/limited; 20 or fewer theaters)
Diciannove (Oscilloscope) NEW - Metacritic: 69; Festivals include: Venice, Toronto 2024
$18,196 in 3 theaters; PTA: $6,065
OPENING (wider)
The Home (Roadside Attractions) NEW - Metacritic: 39
$1,002,000 in 1,014 theaters; PTA: $987
House of Eden (IFC) NEW
$310,000 in 600 theaters; PTA: $517
Shoshana (Greenwich) NEW - Metacritic: 65; Festivals include: Toronto 2023
$44,000 in 56 theaters; PTA: $785
AJ Goes to the Dog Park (Music Box) NEW - Metacritic:; Festivals include: Fargo 2024
$13,500 in 32 theaters; PTA: $422
ONGOING/EXPANDING
Cloud (Sideshow/Janus) Week 2
$22,900 in 3 (+1) theaters; PTA: $7,633; Cumulative: $63,178
Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight (Sony Pictures Classics) Week 3
$61,678 in 83 (-224) theaters; Cumulative: $446,045
Sorry, Baby (A24) Week 5
$400,567 in 338 (+258) theaters; Cumulative: $1,609,000
The Last Class (Abramorama) Week 5 11
$32,101 in 20 (+9) theaters; Cumulative: $232,478
Materialists (A24) Week 7; also on PVOD
$126,570 in 132 (-139) theaters; Cumulative: $36,319,000
The Phoenician Scheme (Focus) Week 9; also on PVOD
$56,000 in 77 (-61) theaters; Cumulative: $19,516,000
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